Existing-home sales declined in January with some buyers waiting to see how details of the economic stimulus package would affect them, according to the NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®. At the same time, inventories fell to a two-year low.
Existing-home sales, including single-family, townhomes, condominiums, and co-ops, fell 5.3 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.49 million units in January from a level of 4.74 million units in December, and are 8.6 percent lower than the 4.91 million-unit pace in January 2008.
Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said there was understandable hesitation by some home buyers. “Given so much stimulus package discussion in January, some would-be buyers simply sat out for clarity and certainty on the nature of housing stimulus,” he said. “The housing market will soon get a lift from very favorable buying conditions—not only from improved affordability, but also from the stimulus of an $8,000 first-time home buyer tax credit, and higher conforming loan limits that will allow more people to tap into 50-year low mortgage rates.”
NAR estimates the impact of the stimulus package and lower interest rates on the housing market to be about 900,000 additional home sales in 2009 compared to conditions before the stimulus package. Inventory is expected to fall below an 8-month supply by year’s end, which would be consistent with home price stabilization.
Inventory dropped 2.7 percent
Total housing inventory at the end of January fell 2.7 percent to 3.60 million existing homes available for sale, which represents a 9.6-month supply at the current sales pace. Because sales were down, the January supply is up from a 9.4-month supply in December.
“The drop in total inventory is an encouraging sign because the number of homes on the market has declined steadily since peaking in July 2008, and inventory is at the lowest level in two years,” Yun said. In January 2007 there were 3.54 million homes for sale.
A buyer can get a really good deal on a distressed sale, although that home may require some significant effort to bring it up to standard. A preliminary analysis by NAR suggests that non-distressed properties are holding their value much better.
It will take a while for the stimulus to show in housing data. From the time a buyer starts looking for a home until it is reported as a closed sale can take as long as five months: a median of 10 weeks to search and make an offer, about 6 weeks to close the transaction and up to 4 weeks to collect and report the data. This means improvement from the economic stimulus isn’t likely to show as closed home sales before summer, although we may see an earlier lift from lower mortgage interest rates.
Northeast: Regionally, existing-home sales in the Northeast dropped 14.7 percent to an annual pace of 640,000 in January, and are 23.8 percent lower than January 2008. The median price in the Northeast was $228,200, down 14.7 percent from a year ago.